Despite the atmosphere’s reluctance, spring is insistent on emerging here in Northeastern Pennsylvania. As I write this, the trees in the valley are leafing out. Up higher the forest canopy has erupted in fluffy light green as the stubborn oak trees cautiously bloom.

We were teased with several warm days over the weekend. Unfortunately, predictions for the week are cool to cold, and unbelievably there is snow predicted for Friday. It seems somewhat cruel of nature to provide us with an unusually cold spring, in the same year it has gifted us with this wonderful Chinese coronavirus.

Time in lockdown rolls on. At the VA Hospital in Wilkes-Barre, we see sporadic cases, most of whom are modestly sick. Around our state, infections and deaths continue to rise, but far more slowly than before.  Overall from the standpoint of coronavirus, Pennsylvania appears to have stabilized.

Regarding drug treatments, Gilead’s antiviral drug remdesivir, underwent a phase 3 trial, that was featured rather prominently in the news as supporting the drug’s effectiveness. As I read the trial, it seemed to be more about establishing whether a 5 versus a 10-day course of the drug was appropriate for treatment. Efficacy did not seem to be an endpoint in this study. The drug was used to treat hospitalized, hypoxic but not ventilated COVID-19 patients. The mortality rate of these patients in both arms of the studies (5 versus 10 days) was 7%.

By comparison, a study in JAMA looking at hospitalized patients with COVID 19 in New York City had a mortality rate of 21%. These studies are completely unmatched however in terms of age or disease severity, and again the Gilead study did not include ventilated patients (at the start). The New York study had a mean age of 63 years old, with patients apparently as old as 107. This clearly might hint that remdesivir is helpful in these patients.

 Interestingly, 553 people died in the New York study, but only 373 were admitted to an ICU, and roughly 330 were placed on ventilators. This means that at least 223 of the dead, did not receive ICU care or mechanical ventilation in a premorbid state.

Given the age range reported, I suspect a percentage of these people were not aggressively treated due to age, or multiple comorbid conditions. This suggests that there were many patients, even without the pandemic, with the potential to die in the next several months. This would tend to lower the practical mortality rate of this illness.

Let’s talk about masks. First rule: No mask short of an N95-type will protect you for instance from an aerosol containing viral particles. However, there is some conflicting data to suggest that an infected person, projects less infectious material by using facemasks. The problem has been that supplies of medical type masks, which are more effective are inadequate, forcing people into homemade alternatives.

So, when I’m in the grocery store, I see all manner of masks from 3M particulate masks, to surgical type masks, to homemade cloth masks and even bandannas pulled up over the nose. If you’re an asymptomatic carrier, the homemade cloth masks and particularly the cowboy chic, probably does little to contain your little viral hitchhikers from visiting other folks. Surgical masks when available, test better in this regard.

Then there those people who wear them while solo running or driving in their cars alone. I fear it’s becoming another form of virtual signaling. According to CDC’s newest guidelines when you’re asymptomatic, masks should be worn only when conditions preclude social distancing. They are in no way a replacement for adequate separation and are probably unnecessary when that is achieved. All this, of course, changes if you’re coughing. In that case, wear a mask and stay the hell away from others. I would say however that wearing a non-occlusive bandanna is useless. Stores should probably not accept this as being compliant with the state guidelines.

At week 7, the economic consequences of this lockdown are becoming apparent. Corporations as diverse as Norwegian Cruise Lines, Lord and Taylor, and J Crew have filed for bankruptcy. More are likely to follow. Businesses are closing prematurely. I worry greatly that the ultimate morbidity (and even mortality) resulting from a severe economic downturn, will be every bit as significant as that from the virus itself.

 If we believe this disease is going to be persistent in the environment, then at some point were going to have either be immunized, or to “face it down “. As the most optimistic timeline for a vaccine is sometime in the late fall or early winter, we have little choice but to open things up in a judicious way, and deal maturely with the bump in diagnoses and deaths that may occur.

So let the snow come on Friday. I know its inevitable that true spring must come, likely soon. Have hope, it’s almost here.