It is now 6 months into the dictatorial restriction of our liberties sold to us as “2 weeks to flatten the curve”. There do not appear to be any goalposts being offered to give us hope.

We can surmise, that the availability of an effective vaccine for SARS Cov-2 will liberate us, but this was squelched by the eminent Dr. Fauci, who claims that even with a vaccine, restrictions will need to be maintained until at least the middle of next year. I read that as until June/July 2021.

Meanwhile here in Pennsylvania, the number of new cases per day, after a small late July peak, has once again begun to decline, along with the number of hospitalizations. The average percentage of emergency room visits for COVID-19 type symptoms is 0.6%. The highest percentage comes out of Sullivan County with 3.8% though they still have no documented cases of COVID 19. The average PCR positivity rate is 4.2% throughout the Commonwealth. I’m sorry but this no longer feels like a pandemic.

Meanwhile, we continue, with what is becoming ritualistic behavior vis-à-vis masking. I have made it clear in the past, that I have been compliant up to now, out of courtesy, and out of the desire not to cause problems for businesses I frequent. But as this disease fades, so should we see our precautions fade. Instead, it’s becoming ingrained.

So now I walk into a restaurant. Shortly before entering, I slip my mask on my face. Throughout the summer this is largely been out of doors, and I walk at a distance from other patrons over to a table (no bar seating allowed), either with my wife or to join a group of friends. At the table, we are permitted to unmask. This is despite the fact that we are now sitting much closer to each other (often no further away than we would be at a bar). None of this makes any bloody sense, not only given the minimal incidence of the virus now but by the mechanics of respiratory droplet spread.

Another issue has to do with the persistence of the virus. The experts seem to be preparing us to understand that this particular virus is going to be persistent in the environment. This is really shouldn’t be any great surprise, as it is true of the adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and other coronaviruses that circulate year-to-year. It’s only by repeated exposure that most of us have at least partial immunity to these common viruses. This means unless you’re very debilitated, you are unlikely to get very sick. Sound familiar?

I hope we have not squandered the opportunity over the summer, through more unfettered social interaction in outdoor spaces, for healthy people to get small exposures to the virus. This would be important in the pursuit of some level of “herd immunity”. I am concerned that as the cold and flu season begins, that we will overreact as respiratory illnesses become more common.

As many of you know, I have been using the Atlantic magazine’s COVID Project among other resources, for some of the data in these articles. As a left of center publication, one would hardly think they would shave the data in a conservative way.

I looked at South Dakota, now 4 weeks from the Sturgis motorcycle rally. South Dakota, it is one of the few states that does not have a mask mandate. The event was accused of being inappropriate, and later of being a “super spreader”. On the website, there are multiple graphs documenting a number of parameters including new cases, number of tests, number of hospitalizations, and number of deaths.

At first glance, the numbers are concerning. South Dakota had had very few cases of COVID, with small peaks in April and May. The curve was then flat until roughly August 16 (right around the end of the rally) when an upward spike began, peaking in early September. Hospitalizations, also peaked, interesting to roughly the same level seen in May with a much smaller number of total cases. The graph of deaths also had a small peak.

All of this looks discouraging except for something I initially overlooked. The graphs used by the Atlantic, have a different scale for each state. This makes it easier to track smaller numbers but also makes small changes look much more dramatic. For instance, the second large peak of hospitalizations post-Sturgis looks impressive, but the number was only 83 admissions for the state. The death peak was 2. Sturgis hardly appears to have been a “super spreader”.

There is more encouraging news. We talked about the CDC reports of “excess deaths ” several weeks ago. This is a comparison of the agency keeps between the actual number of deaths throughout the US for a particular time of year, versus the expected number of deaths. For the first time since April, in the third week of August, there were no excess deaths, and in the fourth week of August, we’re actually 14% below the expected death rate for the week. This certainly seems consistent with our impression that although there are significant numbers of positive PCR tests, the morbidity and mortality associated with this are very low. This may be due in part to the over sensitivity of the PCR test, and possibly a better understanding of how to treat the smaller numbers of those who become critically ill. If we remain below the expected death rate, it might rightfully be said that this outbreak is over.

At any rate, in Pennsylvania, there appears to be no end in sight. A federal judge ruled that a portion of the Wolf/ Levine unilateral restrictions are unconstitutional. I’m not well versed in law but I understand this suit was brought by plaintiffs in a variety of businesses, whose complaints have been largely dealt with as the state partially reopened. Members of the hospitality industry were not a party to this, thus their issues were not addressed in the ruling. The main effect of this may be to relax the restrictions on public gatherings. The Wolf administration is expected to ask for a stay, while they appeal.

I’m uncomfortable with the idea of becoming a militant “antimasker”. The extreme viewpoints on either side of an issue tend to be wrong. Then again, I think we need to find a way to cut through the unwarranted fear, both for our health and for legal liability, the politics, and the religion-like virtue signaling that has become a part of the public reaction to the pandemic. If the virus is here to stay, we’re gonna have to learn to live with it. To me that means moving back towards a normal state of existence.

People keep saying “follow the science”. I completely agree.

As always, I would be honored if you would share this.

Header image: Old Trail near Ray Brook (Fujifilm XE3, XF 18-55 f2.8-4)